A gambling pro won't let on, but I will - a gambling pro will never gamble. They play percentages, which requires study of both the horse's past - and the race's past. You won't catch a pro picking a horse because the name resembles that of his favourite cat!
Horse racing has been sullied by a number of scandals lately - most notorious was that of Keiron Fallon, whose attempt to throw a race was a disgrace of the highest order. But we see a lot of that with the lower-class races, where winnings can be as low as a few hundred pounds. Personally, I never bet on these races, where absolutely anything can happen, from maidens to sellers.
I try to stick to just two races - but I arm myself with plenty of statistics and information about the shortlisted horses. So how do I get my shortlist?
Late on in the jump season, there is the Grand National - supposedly a lottery, and one that many people open a bookmaker's account for, with the sole purpose of using it just for this one race. Now I have a tendency to go for the ante-post betting as soon as the list is published. There will be about 100 horses in the list, so here's how I find my horse:
1. I look for horses between 9 and 11 - preferably 9 or 10. 2. I forget about horses with more than 11 stone on their backs. 3. I eliminate any horses that have not run at Aintree before - and favour any horse that has won at Aintree - at this distance, preferably.
I'm playing percentages here, which means that you will not always win. Hedgehunter played riot with this by coming in at over 11 stone, but he was rightly the favourite that year. This list will give you five or six very good horses that prove that the Grand National is not the lottery people say it is. Even in the year where only five or six horses finished, mine came in second!
The other race I favour is the Prix de l'Arc at Longchamp. France's most prestigious race is also its most consistent - and I do believe that last year's winner Dylan Thomas was an exception to the rule. Here's how I find my winners:
1. Look for a horse trained in France 2. Look for a horse that has won the Prix Niel in September 3. Look for a 3-year-old with five or six runs under its belt 4. Look for a horse that knows (and knows how to win at) Longchamp 5. Don't pick a Derby winner
Now the Arc is a peculiar race for many reasons. Many trainers take a horse there after a long season and think that they can win simply on form - but this really is a late race and many horses are best at the start or in the middle of the season. Hence the "lightly run" factor. Derby winners come early in the season and very rarely adapt to Longchamp.
The racecourse of Longchamp is very specific and you must consider the wide bend and the long straight which can tire out the best horses. So you can use this method and come up with two or three horses - look at their form to separate them. That is how I came up with Hurricane Run, Rail Link, Sagamix, Sakhee, and so many others over the last ten years.
So follow this advice and you can apply it to other races - you will be able to take the past and project it into the future - knowing that by playing percentages you will up your game. And then you'll be a pro, just like the best of them!
About the Author:
Before you open an account with a bookmaker and get yourself a free bet, make sure you read up on each bookie and the potential catches to their promotions from the Free Bet Bookmaker.
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