Professional gamblers will never tell you this - so I will. They never gamble. You will never catch one red-handed putting twenty quid on Forest Green Rovers to win at Oxford United on the off-chance it may happen. They play percentages and they play because they're sure of winning with good odds.
Horse racing has been sullied by a number of scandals lately - most notorious was that of Keiron Fallon, whose attempt to throw a race was a disgrace of the highest order. But we see a lot of that with the lower-class races, where winnings can be as low as a few hundred pounds. Personally, I never bet on these races, where absolutely anything can happen, from maidens to sellers.
I do, however, focus on two races per year - and make sure that I am armed to the teeth with information about my shortlisted horses. How do I get to a shortlist?
The Grand National at Aintree very rarely has the big names that Cheltenham throws up, but it has the history - and boy do we need history. I love this race - the atmosphere, the thrills and the spills - and the winnings. Ah yes, you can make money on the Grand National. In February or March, you'll find the first list of runners and riders, with weights. I use this list for the ante-post betting - I always have a shortlist. Here's how I find my horse:
1. I look for horses between 9 and 11 - preferably 9 or 10. 2. I forget about horses with more than 11 stone on their backs. 3. I eliminate any horses that have not run at Aintree before - and favour any horse that has won at Aintree - at this distance, preferably.
I'm playing percentages here, which means that you will not always win. Hedgehunter played riot with this by coming in at over 11 stone, but he was rightly the favourite that year. This list will give you five or six very good horses that prove that the Grand National is not the lottery people say it is. Even in the year where only five or six horses finished, mine came in second!
I love the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp because it's the final big race of summer, and I almost always find a winner! It's consistent, it's fair and it's exciting - here's how I find a winner:
1. I look for a French-trained horse. 2. I look for the winner of the Prix Niel, a month before the Arc. 3. I look for a lightly run horse, preferably with five or six runs under its belt. 4. I look for a horse that has run - and won - at Longchamp before. 5. I eliminate Derby winners.
Now the Arc is a peculiar race for many reasons. Many trainers take a horse there after a long season and think that they can win simply on form - but this really is a late race and many horses are best at the start or in the middle of the season. Hence the "lightly run" factor. Derby winners come early in the season and very rarely adapt to Longchamp.
The racecourse of Longchamp is very specific and you must consider the wide bend and the long straight which can tire out the best horses. So you can use this method and come up with two or three horses - look at their form to separate them. That is how I came up with Hurricane Run, Rail Link, Sagamix, Sakhee, and so many others over the last ten years.
So follow this advice and you can apply it to other races - you will be able to take the past and project it into the future - knowing that by playing percentages you will up your game. And then you'll be a pro, just like the best of them!
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